The Matco Note
Our monthly compilation of general market commentary from the Matco team. Past issues are below.
Two Sumo Wrestlers in the Investment Ring: Earnings Strength vs. Inflation Pressure
Strong earnings growth and rising corporate profit expectations are supporting markets, while hotter inflation data is creating uncertainty around central bank policy. In this environment, the article highlights quality companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and durable cash flows as a way to participate in growth while managing inflation and interest-rate risk.
The Oil Shock Pipeline: Geopolitics, Inflation, and Opportunity
Rising oil prices are supporting commodity-linked markets while creating delayed inflation pressure that could affect consumer spending and central bank policy. The article highlights short-term volatility as an opportunity to add to quality growth businesses with durable long-term fundamentals.
What's Behind Today's Earnings Strength?
Earnings growth has been supported by strong sales across regions, margin expansion, innovation, and effective corporate management. As valuations remain a key debate, the focus heading into 2026 is on disciplined research, risk management, and investing in durable businesses.
Temperature Check: 2026 Earnings Expectations
Markets remain supportive heading into 2026, helped by stronger than expected earnings and the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025. However, with valuations already elevated, Matco expects stock selection, especially wide moat companies with growing cash flows and strong management, to matter more than regional allocation.
Green Light for Growth: How Q2 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations
Q2 2025 earnings were stronger than expected, shifting investor focus from inflation concerns toward growth, with U.S. companies and the Matco Global Equity Fund both posting high earnings beat ratios. It also notes that valuations remain healthy because market gains have been supported by earnings growth, while U.S. corporate strength continues to matter globally due to its revenue impact across international markets.
Beyond the Bubble Talk: Why Current Valuations Make Sense
This issue takes a top-down look at global equity markets, arguing that while valuations are elevated, they remain supported by stronger earnings growth, rising guidance, and record U.S. operating margins. It also highlights positive trade deal momentum, a still-healthy U.S. labour market, and continued confidence in AI-driven technology investment
The R&D Iceberg: Understanding Technology’s True Investment Scale
This issue explores how technology investment is often understated because much of it happens through R&D expenses, especially as companies ramp up spending on AI infrastructure, model development, and software improvements. It argues that following business investment and profitability across the AI value chain, while maintaining valuation discipline, offers a rational way to participate in the technology cycle.
Why the Promising Start of 2025 Sparked Investor Suspense
This issue reviews Q1 2025 earnings, showing solid large-cap U.S. results, stronger international EPS growth, and standout performance from select Matco Global Equity Fund holdings. While trade policy uncertainty remains a key concern for management teams, the article emphasizes that strong fundamentals support continued conviction and that market volatility may create opportunity.
The Economic Merry-Go-Round
April brought sharp market volatility as tariffs, policy uncertainty, and a negative U.S. GDP print pressured investor sentiment. The article highlights how diversification and active management created opportunities to add to quality growth holdings such as Fortinet and Netflix.
From Bull Rush to Bear Awakening: How Global Markets Danced to Washington’s Tune in Q1 2025
Investor optimism faded in the first quarter as tariff uncertainty raised inflation expectations and pressured consumer confidence. The article highlights the value of diversification across regions and frames market weakness as a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Buy the Dip? What U.S. Consumer Data Reveals About Market Opportunities
The U.S. consumer remains relatively healthy, supported by strong wage growth, low unemployment, solid household net worth, and manageable debt levels. While consumer confidence has weakened due to inflation concerns, the article frames market volatility as an opportunity to stay diversified and buy weakness.
Taking the Market's Temperature
Matco uses its Investment Horizon Indicator as a structured dashboard to assess whether market conditions are becoming more or less favourable for taking risk. With the indicator in the “messy middle,” the article emphasizes diversification, risk awareness, and staying invested in quality growth opportunities.
AI, Resiliency, and Market Strategy: A Year Ahead
December brought renewed focus on market resiliency, AI in finance, and volatility as investors assessed year-end headlines and the Federal Reserve’s more cautious tone on interest rates. The article emphasizes staying invested through market fluctuations while focusing on businesses with strong cash flows and long-term opportunity.
Tariffs Through the Lens of the Matco Global Equity Strategy
Proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods could weigh on Canadian GDP and earnings, though broad long-term tariffs are viewed as unlikely. The article highlights limited direct exposure within the Matco Global Equity Strategy, sector-specific risks, and the potential for market weakness to create buying opportunities in quality Canadian businesses.